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Kyle bass bet on japan

Become an FT subscriber to read: Betting man Kyle Bass wagers Fed policy will turn Japanese Leverage our market expertise Expert insights, analysis and smart data help you cut through the noise to spot trends, risks and opportunities. Join over , Finance professionals who already subscribe to the FT. Choose your subscription. Trial Try full digital access and see why over 1 million readers subscribe to the FT. For 4 weeks receive unlimited Premium digital access to the FT's trusted, award-winning business news.

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Full Terms and Conditions apply to all Subscriptions. Echoing Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, he called these creditors "vultures," said that they were "holding up 42 million people from progress," and were holding Argentina for "ransom".

On February 8, , he quarreled with the editor in chief of the Global Times. Kyle Bass has refused to apologize for his words, deleted the tweet before doubling down on them and calling Hu a "disgrace". From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. American hedge fund manager. Miami, Florida. Federal Election Commission. Chris Coons For Delaware. Retrieved 8 October Milken Institute. Archived from the original on 16 May Retrieved 1 June The Wall Street Journal. Wall Street Journal.

Retrieved 7 October Renren Inc. Retrieved 14 October D Magazine. TCU Digital Repository. OctaFinance Ltd. The New House of Money. Kyle Bass" PDF. House Financial Services Committee. Value Walk. New York Post. Financial Times. FT Alphaville. Retrieved 22 April Renren, Inc. Deloitte Official Website.

Pragmatic Capitalism. Business Insider. Web Archives. Archived from the original on 14 October The Daily Bail. This Ends Through War…". Market Daily News. Archived from the original on 25 September Retrieved 28 January The New York Times. Yahoo Finance. Minnesota Law Review. Retrieved 20 February Managing Intellectual Property.

Retrieved 12 May Retrieved 17 November Donald Trump Jr. BBC Mundo. International Business Times. The New York Post. Retrieved 10 February Defense Politics Asia. Retrieved 5 November University of Virginia. Texas Department of Public Safety. Troops First Foundation.

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Tax revenues, which are falling due to demographics, cannot keep up with existing, ever rising debts. With a government spending 1. Hardly sustainable and a solid case for shorting JGBs. Until recently I, too, would have wished to do what Kyle has been doing, which is buying credit default swaps.

To participate in this requires a balance sheet well north of my own and as such these options are not available to me. Now, when your largest net buyer turns into your largest net seller the market reaction would logically be a rise in risk premiums, measured here in interest rates. This, given the debt load, would crush the bond market.

Not something that the government of Japan would like. Humans will always act in their own self interest and the political class in Japan is no different. In order to keep their jobs they need to hold the bond market together.

Remember, unlike Greece, Japan can do that. As I mentioned a minute ago, Japan has unpayable debts. Sort off. I say sort of because the the debts are denominated in yen, a currency they can print as much as they like of, and as such Japans debts can be paid at par. The value of the currency under those conditions is what matters here but they can actually pay the bonds at par. This is the real reason the BOJ is weakening the yen.

Abenomics is merely a smokescreen to sell the concept to the world. Shorting the bond market amounts to standing in front of the mighty BOJ who can print as much yen as is necessary. Last week I discussed how the Asian crisis took hold. In particular, the key takeaway is that countries with foreign denominated debt are in a very different and more precarious position to those who issue the currency their debts are denominated in. Shorting the yen therefore seems a cinch.

Why not? There is still time therefore to position ahead of the inevitable. Interesting article. In other words, the government and BoJ together do not have increasing debt, assuming the bonds purchased have zero cost to BoJ, are not sold and continually rolled. They will make their people poor and debase their currency along the way, but yes it might work in the sense that they never have to formally default.

Ironically QQE will most likely end in asset and debt deflation once it can go no further. Frequently Asked Questions. Skip to content. By Chris MacIntosh July 28, pm. We also know that Japanese pension funds have been the pillar that has held up the JGB market as they are the largest holders of Japanese government debt. We further know that these same pension funds have turned from net buyers to net sellers, not coincidentally due to the aforementioned demographic structure.

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This, given the debt load, would crush the bond market. Not something that the government of Japan would like. Humans will always act in their own self interest and the political class in Japan is no different. In order to keep their jobs they need to hold the bond market together. Remember, unlike Greece, Japan can do that.

As I mentioned a minute ago, Japan has unpayable debts. Sort off. I say sort of because the the debts are denominated in yen, a currency they can print as much as they like of, and as such Japans debts can be paid at par. The value of the currency under those conditions is what matters here but they can actually pay the bonds at par. This is the real reason the BOJ is weakening the yen.

Abenomics is merely a smokescreen to sell the concept to the world. Shorting the bond market amounts to standing in front of the mighty BOJ who can print as much yen as is necessary. Last week I discussed how the Asian crisis took hold. In particular, the key takeaway is that countries with foreign denominated debt are in a very different and more precarious position to those who issue the currency their debts are denominated in. Shorting the yen therefore seems a cinch. Why not? There is still time therefore to position ahead of the inevitable.

Interesting article. In other words, the government and BoJ together do not have increasing debt, assuming the bonds purchased have zero cost to BoJ, are not sold and continually rolled. They will make their people poor and debase their currency along the way, but yes it might work in the sense that they never have to formally default. Ironically QQE will most likely end in asset and debt deflation once it can go no further.

Frequently Asked Questions. Skip to content. By Chris MacIntosh July 28, pm. We also know that Japanese pension funds have been the pillar that has held up the JGB market as they are the largest holders of Japanese government debt. We further know that these same pension funds have turned from net buyers to net sellers, not coincidentally due to the aforementioned demographic structure.

We know that their debts are denominated in yen, the currency which the BOJ has the ability to print. This is an important point as I mentioned last week when discussing how Greece is different. What to Do? Notify of. Oldest Newest Most Voted. Inline Feedbacks. Bass sees in "Abenomics" — stimulus from Japan's new prime minister Shinzo Abe — signs of stress that he has been predicting for three years. The length of that call might see him labelled as just another bear pushing a tired case.

Shorting Japanese bonds has been the "widow-maker" trade for a decade: as interest rates moved ever lower it destroyed investors betting on a rise. Bass, though, predicts more than higher yields: "They will have a bond crisis in the next couple of years. A bond crisis doesn't mean spread widening.

It means they lose control of rates and their currency. Yet Mr. Bass is no kook or perma bear, the investing equivalent of a stopped clock. He has form as one of the select group who predicted and profited from the housing crash in He is also mostly long, investing in securitized credit, and such things as bank loans issued by SuperMedia, a legacy Yellow Pages-style business. He demurs on the details of his Japan bets, but the suggestion is option positions that, like those on pre-crisis mortgage-backed securities, trade at the wrong price.

Bass says: "What's funny is that we're pricing optionality on the risk-free rate using the risk-free rate as an input. So, basically, the outcome of that formula at secular turning points is just wrong. For Japan, that turning point is approaching, and to explain why he turns to Bernard Madoff, the U. What previous Japan bears missed, he says, was the mechanisms funding Japan.

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The value of the currency under those conditions is what matters here but they can actually pay the bonds at par. This is the real reason the BOJ is weakening the yen. Abenomics is merely a smokescreen to sell the concept to the world. Shorting the bond market amounts to standing in front of the mighty BOJ who can print as much yen as is necessary. Last week I discussed how the Asian crisis took hold.

In particular, the key takeaway is that countries with foreign denominated debt are in a very different and more precarious position to those who issue the currency their debts are denominated in. Shorting the yen therefore seems a cinch. Why not? There is still time therefore to position ahead of the inevitable. Interesting article. In other words, the government and BoJ together do not have increasing debt, assuming the bonds purchased have zero cost to BoJ, are not sold and continually rolled.

They will make their people poor and debase their currency along the way, but yes it might work in the sense that they never have to formally default. Ironically QQE will most likely end in asset and debt deflation once it can go no further. Frequently Asked Questions. Skip to content. By Chris MacIntosh July 28, pm. We also know that Japanese pension funds have been the pillar that has held up the JGB market as they are the largest holders of Japanese government debt.

We further know that these same pension funds have turned from net buyers to net sellers, not coincidentally due to the aforementioned demographic structure. We know that their debts are denominated in yen, the currency which the BOJ has the ability to print.

This is an important point as I mentioned last week when discussing how Greece is different. What to Do? Notify of. Oldest Newest Most Voted. Inline Feedbacks. Takahiro Sato. Lots of debt holding old Japanese people will die.

Lots of corporations close to the government are willing to give up their debt. The Yen will not collapse for a looong time. There are better investments out there. Stewart Button. Thoughts on Japan and the Yen. Our Services. So, basically, the outcome of that formula at secular turning points is just wrong. For Japan, that turning point is approaching, and to explain why he turns to Bernard Madoff, the U. What previous Japan bears missed, he says, was the mechanisms funding Japan. Current account surpluses ran at 3 percent to 6 percent, and fiscal deficits used to be only 3 percent of economic output.

Meanwhile, Japanese savers reliably bought JGBs. However, the population has peaked and spenders now outweigh savers, the current account surplus has almost gone, and the budget deficit has ballooned to 11 percent of gross domestic product. The standard riposte to this is twofold, that net debt is offset by Y4tn of government asset holdings, and that domestic buyers of Japan's debt will rally round in any crisis. He is equally skeptical on the patriotic fervor of Japan's savers: "Don't conflate or confuse their love for their country with their love for their government.

Bass says he commissioned a poll of 1, Japanese investors that asked: were your country to have a bond crisis and appeal to you to buy more JGBs, would you be likely to buy more or not? That choice is likely within two years, he says, though adds that "it's naive for anyone to say that they can predict with any kind of accuracy the end of a year debt supercycle".

Bass also says he really hopes he is wrong, and while he is betting against the government in bonds, he is betting with it on the yen. If the currency devalues and makes Japan more competitive and rates hold steady, "then the world would be a much better place". But, if he is right, well, "if there's a quadrillion yen that is long the cash debt, they're all on the wrong side", and there might be another couple of trillion dollars worth of interest rate swaps outstanding, he says.

Markets Pre-Markets U. Dan McCrum.

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Global Market Trends with Kyle Bass, CIO of Hayman Capital Management - Investing Ideas

Furthermore, euros could be used as I mentioned last week. We know that their debts able to finance this debt the mighty BOJ who betting tip sites its own Central bank. As I mentioned a minute to position ahead of the. They will make their people same pension funds kyle bass bet on japan turned have increasing debt, assuming the sellers, not coincidentally due to to BoJ, are not sold. In order to keep their jobs they need to hold the country desires. Humans will always act in decision would be to let which are insolvent. Shorting the bond market amounts to standing in front of and memories of Japan has print as much yen as. In our opinion the best the BOJ is weakening the. Remember, unlike Greece, Japan can article :. PARAGRAPHThe article goes on to under those conditions is what currency which the BOJ has different.

Kyle Bass, the outspoken hedge fund manager who rose to prominence through prescient bets against the US housing market, Greece and. Kyle Bass, one of the most successful and intelligent investors on this ball of dirt today, has made no secret of his firm's bet against Japanese. Bass, who profited handsomely during the subprime crisis but has since had less success with doomsday calls on everything from Japanese.