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MEMSIE STAKES BETTING ON SPORTS

Except that is almost like saying if you successfully ran a red light without getting pulled over a bunch of times in a row, then you are now a wizard on knowing which red lights to run and which ones to stop at.

Betting sports blindly is like trying to run a red light. You are not aware of the oncoming traffic from the left or the right. You are not aware if a cop is nearby watching. This is simply an ill-advised unsafe decision.

It is a hidden illusion for many bettors that you have put your work in, but really you have not. You went into the sportsbook and saw a line that looked appealing to you, for whatever reason. You text your friend you like it. He says he likes it too. You go to the window and bet.

Many bets take place just like this example. Maybe you did put in a lot of research. What if it was the wrong research and you lose anyway? People love to rationalize and say they were unlucky. Either way it makes things very easy to continue. After all, you know that even the top bettors are going to have to incur a losing. These illusions keeps people going for a long time.

Sooner or later, they just have to, and you finally realize it was them all along. I capitalized it because people think this is also a possibility. A lock. The thing about professional or college sports is the difference between the two teams is so small. It is very underrated as to how small it is. What if they play badly? If you play badly against another team full of freak athletes, all of whom are also professional football players, the supposed dominant team is at a high risk of getting beat.

You will not just show up and win because you are better. You still have to do your job right, and not everybody always does this. That happens too. That is why there is upsets. And that is why when you play the moneyline in games that have a huge favorite, you are going to have to lay a lot of odds on them just to be the victor.

The edges are not found easily. Think of it as being a detective. I wish you the best if you take this on as a full time career. I can only imagine it first developed as hey, what could be better than making a living from my hobby? People do it. Humans have shown themselves to be capable of nearly anything. Just understand at all times this requires a near infinite amount of discipline and diligence. Search the site. Professional Sports Betting. We have no idea if he can translate his game knowledge into beating the betting market, but the limits are pretty good in the major leagues and events like Counter Strike.

While Justin and many others are beginning to think outside the box out of necessity, there are some brighter sides from the betting side coming out of this, too. Steve has been a professional sports bettor and advantage player in Las Vegas for over a decade. He's in a fortuitous spot now at this point in his career, but he sympathizes with everybody else.

But, like six years ago I have no idea what I would have done. There aren't any avenues for income right now. I have many grinder AP [advantage player] friends that are totally freaking out. I mentioned earlier that Jacob is one of the biggest movers I know.

He's also in a fortuitous situation that differs from the majority of the betting community. When I asked him if he'd be willing to share what his plans were for the next few months, his response was perfect: "Yeah, that's cool, got nothing else to do. He said that in jest, but I could tell Jacob felt free and refreshed. He told me he plans on hanging out with his family, reading books and resetting. I'm never going to get this opportunity again in my life.

I'd be an idiot to waste the vacation; well, not that it's a real vacation, but it's rare I get to spend uninterrupted time with the fam. I took advantage of the downtime myself and decided to hunker down and spend a few days with family in Southern California. The reset is real. I don't know how else to explain it other than my mind felt lighter. I've had days off from Daily Wager and doing the show before, but they aren't true days off.

Not for a sports bettor. There are always games to be looking at, updates to be made, markets to be shopped, screens to be watched; the list goes on and on. Even days where I wind up with minimal or no action at all, I'm looking at numbers and lines for the following day's games and betting in-game and second halves at night. It never ends. Well, it did for us as sports bettors last week. My mind felt lighter because it quite literally could not churn -- there were no games or numbers to even churn.

That's something that I will need to intentionally implement more regularly in the future once professional sports normalize again. It felt great. But one thing is for certain: We all miss the sweat. We miss the work. We miss being right and learning when we are wrong. There isn't anything better than this. Yes, we're all going to be doing things differently now as bettors. Our lives have changed. But I raise an ice-cold Dr Pepper to us getting our old lives back as soon as we possibly can.

Skip to navigation. What does a pro sports bettor do without sports to bet on? Super Bowl LV: Everything you need to know to bet the big game. Kansas City Chiefs. A gamble on Brady's move to Tampa Bay leads to profits. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. LeBron now MVP favorite at some sportsbooks. Los Angeles Lakers. Brady a rare Super Bowl underdog vs. Washington first NFL team to land betting license. Notable Super Bowl betting trends. Notable Bets: Mahomes' injury throws oddsmakers for a loop.

Notable Bets: Favorites, and bettors, win big in Week Every NFL team's record against the spread and more. Notable Bets: Receiverless Browns let down betting public. Notable Bets: A Jets bet you won't believe. Notable Bets: NFL underdogs taking toll on betting public. Notable Bets: Jets spoil biggest win of season for bookmakers. Notable Bets: The remaking of the Saints-Broncos point spread. Notable Bets: Survivor contest disaster, plus another bad Sunday for betting public.

Midseason NFL betting report: Prime time 'dogs and overs shining. NFL 'dogs bark in Week 8, betting public suffers. Betting battleground: The fight over where people bet in the future. Todd Gurley mistake, missed PAT produce big swings at sportsbooks. Atlanta Falcons. Daniel Jones, Giants cost bettors over a million. New York Giants.

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Most people who try to be a professional sports gambler will fail. Of course, most people fail. They are in it for fun, mostly, and if the cash comes their way, great! Real professionals take a systematic approach to betting.

You might win a lot of money playing roulette, but that just means you got lucky. They rely on skill and statistics to ply their trade. A professional gambler looks at a roulette wheel and keeps on walking. This leads to why you can make money on sports. They can sit back and wait forever until the bookmakers make a mistake. Pro sports betters are basically like the bookmakers. They have to use math and statistics to calculate the odds of the event they are betting on. So nobody was doing anything wrong, they figured.

One day, while Spanky awaited the birth of his daughter in the hospital, his partner went to a Dunkin Donuts to pick up some money an offshore book owed them. Then, as they got in their cars to leave, they were surrounded by police officers with their guns drawn.

Trap door? For what? The other employees, shaken, followed him out the door. He even expanded his operation beyond middling games, and together with his new brain trust developed new models that allowed him to take positions on games. Fundamental analysis is handicapping. You make numbers. Technical analysis, you look at the market. His team started spending their days watching screens with lines from sportsbooks all over the world, and using finely tuned models to analyze the various line movements and interpret what they meant.

In some ways it was similar to what day traders might do in the stock market. By , middling and steam betting had made Spanky what he deemed a fortune, and he had made a name for himself. After Congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act in , it became next to impossible for American gamblers to deposit and withdraw money from offshore gambling sites.

Not all bookmakers decamped from the Caribbean, however. Those who stayed behind had to largely forgo doing business with the American market. Johnny Aitken, who went from working as a runner for a major gambling syndicate in Australia all the way up to becoming CEO of the Australia-based sportsbook PointsBet, watched it happen. But recreational gamblers either get lucky and win or they go broke, and if they get too lucky, too often they get banned.

Either way there is a law of diminishing returns for the bookmaker who will tolerate no risk, unless that bookmaker can continually locate new, untapped pools of players, like an energy company constantly looking for new pockets of oil or gas buried beneath the shale. These became the two prevailing models of bookmaking. On one side were the European-style books.

On the other side were companies like Pinnacle, who offered lower odds and took on larger bets. Pinnacle and BetCRIS were known to let certain sharp players bet their lines before they went public. One side gets a bet at house limits, the other side gets valuable information. This is the way it worked for many years, more or less. But according to Peabody, the days of posted limits and sharp players being able to bet started to end when William Hill arrived in Nevada.

Of the physical sportsbooks in Nevada, William Hill operates more than If someone is good enough to beat you why not use that information internally? Take the bet at a smaller amount and use it to move your line. It is completely false to say that we ban people simply for winning. There are literally tens of thousands of customers in Nevada that are winners at William Hill. In the rare situation where we do prohibit someone from wagering with us, there are a variety of reasons why.

If someone tells you that the reason that they are prohibited from wagering with William Hill is because they are winning, they are not telling you the whole story. Total, total, utter bullshit and you can quote me on that. By , Spanky says he was allowed to bet directly in only five places in the entire world. He had three kids, with a fourth on the way. His business had been profitable and predictable. His employees were happy.

He was becoming a wealthy man. But the European-style changes in the market could potentially kill his livelihood. That meant that he needed to keep millions of dollars in action to earn enough to support his family and his employees. And with so many sportsbooks refusing his action, he needed to get creative. They would provide Spanky with their own accounts to bet into with other bookmakers, and they could split the proceeds. These bookmakers already knew he was a winning player, and most leaped at the opportunity to make a profit off his plays, while at the same time taking a bite out of their competition.

Bookmakers were more skittish about taking on risk than Spanky had ever seen before. With so little independent data and analysis of their own lines, bookmakers were flinching at every shadow. I give him the money and take the betslip, then return to my chair in the front row. The game then appears on the screen, only the line is now Xavier They should have given Toledo MORE points, not fewer, to get someone to take the other side of the game and balance out my bet.

Instead, by moving the line in my direction, they were trying to entice me to bet more! I clutch my backpack and go back up to the counter to speak to the manager. He punches it into the computer and waits for word from the trading office in Las Vegas. When I return to my seat, the game flashes again, and this time the line goes back to Back to the counter, and another bet approved.

This time, the line moves to You can keep sending people with new names and fresh money. He was betting much smaller amounts. Instead of reacting to my bet, William Hill reacted to the lines moving at all the places Spanky was betting, from -5 to When I left the casino the line was already at One of the people Spanky partnered with in to make bets for him was a bookmaker in Allentown, New Jersey.

Investigators overheard Spanky talking to the bookmaker about money he was owed. I was just a bettor. Through those wiretaps, investigators traced an intricate web of bookies and bettors that stretched across the globe, and involved both illegal street bookies and a major Wall Street financial firm, Cantor Fitzgerald. They took him away in handcuffs. In all, they arrested 25 people in five states.

Spanky says he was a victim of a misunderstanding about how his business worked, that he was mistaken for a bookmaker when he was merely a bettor. He was placing bets through so many accounts and with so many partners, often with bookmakers who themselves were operating illegally in the United States, that it created a confusing web of cash moving back and forth among many parties on both sides of the law. In all, Spanky was charged with enterprise corruption; fourth-, third-, second-, and first-degree money laundering; first-degree promoting gambling; and fourth- and fifth-degree conspiracy.

As Spanky and Mike sat in jail, they contemplated their future. Perhaps they should get out of the gambling business. Mike suggested they open up a hot dog stand. He took his first break from betting in 12 years. He joined a touch football league. He played in board game tournaments. Eventually he wondered what he was doing with his life.

This is all I know how to do. His Princeton guys got scared and quit. His betting partners worried he was hot, maybe working with the feds. And his wife was terrified the police might come kicking in the door again.

She asked him to promise it would never happen. What he could promise her was that he would live his life out in the open. There would never again be any doubt which side of the counter he was on. Over the next few years, Spanky and Mike worked hard to build their business back up. They started betting again, building their bankroll back up. They had a few good football seasons. Things appeared to be getting back on track for them. It was like a dream come true. The work that Spanky had done his entire life—work that once required him to hide his identity, to meet people in back alleys to trade sacks of cash, work that led to his phones being tapped, his nest egg being confiscated, and his reputation dragged through the mud—he would finally be able to do with his head held high.

Showing astute foresight, William Hill signed a deal with Monmouth Park in , a full five years before the PASPA decision, at a time when few people were predicting the law would be overturned. But Mike thought it was worth a shot. The first day Spanky arrived at Monmouth Park, the place was packed, and people were betting with both hands.

Could it be possible that bookmaking in New Jersey was going to be a return to the good old days? Spanky interrogated the manager for the video. From then on, Spanky was a man on a mission. As each new sportsbook opened in New Jersey, Spanky showed up. Each time he negotiated bet limits. Each time he was welcomed by the sportsbooks with open arms. Casinos usually salivate over players willing to bet large amounts, wining and dining them and putting them up in free suites.

The new sportsbooks in New Jersey were no different. Four weeks I was there. Once I started winning, I had a big weekend and held 32 percent, they cut me off. Sometimes it was after a week of taking his bets. Sometimes within a couple of days. Each time he recorded it and posted the videos on Twitter.

Each time his followers grew, cheering him on. After Pennsylvania legalized bookmaking and Parx Casino opened its sportsbook, Spanky tweeted that he was planning to go check it out. Not every sportsbook in New Jersey has banned Spanky. The Hard Rock, the most recent sportsbook to open in Atlantic City, welcomes his action.

He was the manager of the famed Stardust sportsbook in Las Vegas in the s and early s. While others are run by large international conglomerates pooling money from bets taken all over the world, the Hard Rock is backing the sports bets it takes with its own money. Johnny Aitken at PointsBet is also hoping to make a big splash in New Jersey by going against the grain and allowing sharp players to bet big, and he hopes it will even help give his book an edge.

The three-day event was a trade show for the technology and data companies, many of whom are European, that hope to break into the fledgling American market. Data and technology are the driving forces in sports gambling now, more closely resembling a bizzaro version of Wall Street. Bookies are now traders. Bets are positions. Instead of talking about fumbles or points or vig or juice, you hear talk of Python and stacks and hold and risk. Old-school bookmakers are being replaced by algorithms that do the work once done by armies of traders, whose jobs are now to oversee the systems that power the trading floor.

Well, I call them traitors. Gambling, it seems, is only what the customer is doing. Gambling is for suckers. It is simply finance. And it must never, ever lose money. Now these guys who run these casinos do not even gamble. Jon Kaplowitz, the head of interactive for Penn National Gaming, which is partnered with William Hill, was asked about their risk management strategy. I myself have personally been kicked out of all of your sportsbooks, as well as several of my colleagues, for the action being quote-unquote too sharp.

After some uncomfortable snickers from the audience, and an answer from Kaplowitz about how he has to manage between giving customers a great experience and making a profit, Asher grumpily responds. Later that evening, one conference attendee tells me he heard Spanky threatened to go after Asher with a baseball bat. When I tell him what Spanky actually said, the man seems a little disappointed.

And other gamblers were patting him on the back and thanking him for taking a stand against the greedy corporations. Long gone were the days of bettors grousing about his steam play, of calling him a bottom feeder. Spanky Kyrollos, however, knows a guy, and we get in no problem. All of the bets I made were either for games the following day or games currently being played. My work is already done.

The couple at the table next to ours interrupts Spanky. They recognize him. Spanky is gregarious in chatting with them. If there is such a thing as New Jersey charm, Spanky exudes it. Then he jumps back in without missing a beat. I love the challenge. And when you beat the line, that means you won. But I do admire his pride in craftsmanship. In this particular battle, his foe is so vastly powerful and wealthy that I can understand his enthusiasm for this small victory.

I even root him on. Or it could simply be that deep inside his heart he is that increasingly rare creature in this modern world: a true gambler.

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Ask the Experts: How To Make A Living Sports Betting

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