If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts to the opinions of others. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team.
When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor. For example Team A should be a 3 point underdog to Team B, however, The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public.
A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies.
A large amount of data available via the internet and other sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more to sift through to find the gems. The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data. Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful. A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire.
Based on the odds of for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right The chart below shows the break-even points for the various odds you will encounter when you make a bet on the money line. This represents a house edge of 5. Indeed, most experienced roulette players will choose European roulette as the single zero section will decrease the house edge to 2.
So, what are we looking at when it comes to a sports bet? The implied probability for a Spurs win is The percentage adds up to This 7. Without getting into the mathematics behind the margins, you can see that the relative house edge for bookmaking can be higher than roulette.
For example, we know that the last time Spurs and United clashed at Wembley, the former won the match This is an indicator for the outcome of the semi final, whereas if red was the last outcome in a roulette game it would have no bearing at all on what the next result will be. But there are also intangibles to consider in a football game — Spurs will be missing star striker Harry Kane, United seem to have dressing room unrest with manager Jose Mourinho. None of these issues affect the outcome of a roulette game.
What do we learn from this? Everything and nothing. Probable outcomes are a little bit different of course. In the end, most of us bet for fun and thinking too much about the math takes away from that.
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