The Sportsbooks goal is to have the betting as evenly as possible. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line to get some action on the other team. Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts to the opinions of others. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper meaning that the odds are in his favor.
For example Team A should be a 3 point underdog to Team B, however, The public loves Team A and are betting on them and the line moves to make Team A a one-point favorite, then Team B becomes an excellent bet. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public.
A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions about the game and ignores most of the public sentiment. A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line first, and then compare their predictions to the line to look at discrepancies.
A large amount of data available via the internet and other sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more to sift through to find the gems. The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data. Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful.
A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire. Based on the odds of for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right If this is the case, we recommend only altering it once at around mid-season, and keeping it the same percentage of your new bankroll. Betting Units Won is abused by handicappers so much that is has little or no worth on most handicapping sites.
Some bettors use a strategy that is referred to as the Wal-Mart approach. With this strategy, bettors are hoping to grind out a profit through a higher quantity of plays, which allows bettors to spread around their risk in the sports betting marketplace. In the table above, Pinnacle has a lower winning percentage than Phoenix, but it also has a higher profit for the season due to triggering more than double the number of plays.
Spreading risk around allows bettors to ride the highs and lows of the season and still turn a profit. This approach requires bettors to be steadfast with their betting amounts. For more information, read Betting Unit Size.
Fluctuations in your standard bet will most likely cause more damage during the lows than it will help during the highs. Spreading the risk around in the sports betting marketplace is similar to building a diverse portfolio in the stock market. It lessens the damage done by a rough stretch in the market. Many bettors like to stay away from moneyline-based sports, such as baseball and hockey, due to the extremes in winning percentages, but they can be very profitable.
Betting on the underdog in moneyline sports will likely give you a losing record, but the payouts for winners will be so much higher that your profits will increase. Notice that five out the six books have losing records for the triggered plays, but that all six have significant units won due to underdog payouts. The other side of the coin is betting on favorites, which will give you a strong winning percentage, but can still produce a loss in money.
Betting on teams like the Yankees or Red Wings will consistently put your odds in the s or higher.
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