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Sports betting strategy reddit

There were still question marks with Durant coming back from injury. How will he and Kyrie mesh? Curry is also good enough to take over on his own. The 7. I was saying Trust is your predictor then? So this is just a technical way of saying that they know it to be, and have set it up to be, a prohibitively bad bet? Line movement is one thing, but saying '7.

It probably matters more whether you beat the closing line. That wouldn't help much honestly. I can still give it to you if you'd like, but I don't have a whole lot of NBA insiders or anything. Its name in English is ef pronounced , plural efs. This comment was left automatically by a bot. If something's wrong, please, report it.

If betting the contrarian is so easy, why is there no one in the daily thread with a hella good record doing exactly that. I think he is referring to getting the worse spread when the line changes due to public betting. In his example the guys on Nets Public could still win, but those late bettors won't.

I kinda use a similar strat with NFL if I am betting games where the public moved the line significantly. You still have to have some knowledge on the teams and situation though. But just fading public isn't a smart idea. Obviously there is much more to it than just betting opposite of the public. Because if this there is added value on contrarian sides that will help you profit overtime. Nets up 30 as the public predicted. Live betting in general has been very kind to me and all my friends in our fantasy football group chat that also doubles as gambling talk.

Its not as simple as he's saying, but there are a lot of times where you can make it work if you're watching a game. Say tonight the Lakers get off to a start against the Clippers and the line moves from -3 to Are both teams expected to continue at these paces?

That doesn't mean the Lakers may not still cover so there is a chance you lose, but you can definitely get value doing this. Lost 30 bucks.. Had to to make my own parlay. My strategy for betting NBA is bet Moneyline on all short underdogs. Start with 1 unit. If you lose that bet, double the unit amount. Repeat until you win and restart. Warning: If 8 consecutive short favorites win outright in a row, you'll lose your entire bankroll.

Lol extremely unlucky but it's possible. Mathematically, you'll end up winning 2 consecutive bets more often than you will end up having to sweat the 4th bet. Because you don't have an infinite amount to keep doubling you need to know what your maximum starting bet is and keeping that "short" means small.

You could only lose 3 times in a row before you cannot keep doubling your money. You could lose 7 times in a row while still being able to double your money. Short implies he's going to widen the margin of error by using a small betting value. You are just as likely to lose 7 bets in a row with or without this strategy. It is meant to help mitigate losses but only theoretically works because you need an infinite bank roll to do so. But every game is independent of the one before. All games are independent.

The Martingale strategy is only an attempt to cover your losses that breaks down quickly and is limited by your bankroll for how far you can keep taking losses. Again, it's just my personal strategy that I always use. Works for me I don't see why it wouldn't work for others.

My audiologist tells me you push more in than you get out. Having wax buildup plugs pulled. Dont apply when one big favorite won 1H by points and is even on 2H, no value on dog and bet on favorite goes against this 'theory'. Also dont apply to when decent dog 3. Add those 2 points to your general perception of the game u are watching and you will do very well.

I say 'unproven' because i am too much of a degen to seriously test this or maintain a record, but i am very confident u will end the season in profit if u follow. I occasionally play around with it at work when I'm bored and did some quick back testing. It's easy to find published odds for old games, at least for the entire game. However, halftime odds, especially live odds, aren't available anywhere as far as I know.

Someone may have first hand knowledge, but I'd be willing to guess that the books make enough live adjustments that playing the 2nd half based only on the first half outcome would lose you money in the long run. I will take a deeper look when im free. No problem! I completely agree with you though. I think the best edge one can get is in live betting based on the game flow and one's knowledge of the sport. The computer algorithms that tweak the live odds will never be as good as an attentive and knowledgable better in my opinion, but its so damn hard to test since you you can't find those odds anywhere and I don't have the patience to live capture that shit over a whole season myself lol.

The computer algorithms that tweak the live odds will never be as good as an attentive and knowledgable better in my opinion. Thats absolutely right, unless a major event in the game star player like lebron getting injured the odds are calculated based on the pregame lines and not actually based on the court. This is actually solid advice because I use the same method haha 2h is actually the most profitable way of betting NBA.

For number 2, I usually like home favorites that are down at half time. Nice to see someone else has tried this as well, works decent enough in my opinion, and nba bets are a crapshoot decided in last mins of game anyways! Dont jump on the Nets at If you think Nets are killing them right now. Btw pointing to one example doesnt rly help your argument.

The public can both lose AND the opposite bet can be a loser. I do micro bets bucks and pick randomly on money lines, spreads, and over-unders across lots of sports. It's more entertainment than anything, but i only do randoms because whenever i think i know what i'm betting on, i'm wrong. If you are gambling mostly for entertainment then by all means play some parlays, they are extremely fun.

However if you are an everyday gamble and are taking is seriously. Parlays can be very detrimental to your bankroll. What clicked for me with parlays is still betting on the same thing. Alittle harder to do with basketball but I like to use parlays to focus on mismatches, like KD Paschal tonight hopefully. Same game parlay is a different game. I think theres a reason most sportsbooks dont do that cuz you can craft a narrative where player props that are tied together like Baker, points, receivers, all go up together.

I feel safer playing SGP than just picking a bunch of to team bets. If I took the parlay of the first basket and team winner, and picked each of the starting 5, I would make more. The only thing I would have to account for is if someone is pulled last second and another starter is inserted Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement and Privacy Policy.

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Welcome to Reddit, the front page of the internet. Become a Redditor and join one of thousands of communities. Want to add to the discussion? Post a comment! Create an account. All seem to be paid Feels nice knowing I turned 1 beer into 6 once this pandemic ends. More games less variance. Who could have predicted this kind of result would happen.

Could make the same arguments for any other major sport. A true scholar! And right now the Warriors are losing by 30 with a few minutes left. But do you know what the problem is? The sky is the limit on betting formulas so pick your cloud wisely.

Trust that it will normalize to What's that? Try to make educated decisions on games. Don't listen to what they tell you guy. You shoot for the stars and start off with a 7 team parlay using half your stack. Do some research to make educated picks and by educated, I mean grab a bottle of gin and follow your gut instincts.

Don't chase. That should be the biggest, boldest suggestion. It never works. And when it does, it only hurts you long term! Got it okay. It sounds like a healthy perspective to have and you sound like it's mainly for entertainment purposes and the objective isn't necessarily to turn a profit - if it happens that's great, if not, move on.

This is the best attitude to approach with. If you don't really care, like you're supposed to do with gambling it just adds something to a game you might watch. I'd advise staying away from betting your team because it sucks watching them lose as you lose money, but just have fun with it.

You'll remember the tough losses much more than your greatest wins. Just try and play with the money you initially deposit. Rule 1. Don't bet on the early kick off Rule 2. Don't bet on your own team. Rule 3.

Fuck it, you're going to lose anyway. Edit: Fuck Edit 2: I cant spell. I learned rule 2 the hard way this week. Watching your favorite team lose and lose money in the process sucks double hard. Stay away from the double frustration and never bet your own team. Unless the line looks really good And there's no way they don't cover that right? Its just one of my rules, every damn time I stick an early kick off in my accumulator it loses and then the rest of the acca is over before the games even begin.

So now I keep the early kick off in its own bet seperate from the 3pm kick offs. So I avoid the kick off bet and stick to the 3pm ones, at least for accumulators anyway. Rule 2 is very good. I usually abide by it but broke it last night. I was down a lot of money and was extremely confident the dodgers would beat the nats.

I just started betting at the start of the football season. One of the things I do is stick to a unit size. I am a broke college student that really shouldn't be gambling. I don't necessarily do this to make money although that is the goal , I do it for entertainment and the challenge of beating Vegas. Know that you will lose and be ok with that. Its about the long run. I bet a bit more than this but still small amounts I can barely watch sports now without some kind of money on the games.

That's what I do as well. That way I can run a few parlays that payout like 10 to 20 bucks and not really care if the lose but it makes the games more fun. Although yesterday sucked for me I only lost like 10 bucks. Fuckin bears and chiefs and chargers. Also like to pick all the big favorites in college and throw in one close game all money lines 8 team is max at my book. I hit an 8 team and won 22 last week on 2 bucks. Ask yourself why you're gambling.

If you enjoy sports and want to make the games a bit more interesting by throwing some money on the line that you can afford to lose, have at it. No harm or foul giving away money you can afford to lose. If you have an addictive type personality or you're sick of your job and think you know enough about sports that you can make money doing this, leave now and don't look back.

Don't listen to Reddit sportsbook picks. Don't buy professional gamblers picks. Don't chase bets after you lose trying to recoup losses. The martingale betting is not a guaranteed way to make money unless you have an insanely large bank roll read infinite. Wow thank you! What an awesome read especially for someone that is completely new to this.

I mean, might be good for entertainment value, but this stuff is not going to help you win. No bet sequencing will overcome being a -EV better and if you are a winning better, varying your bets so dramatically is almost certainly going to be constantly underbetting or overbetting your advantage.

Same reason why martingale doesn't work. This is the stuff that makes sports betting profitable for the rest of us. People actually following this bullshit. Yeah at a certain point if the odds are there for a big payout, why not? My biggest advice as obvious as it sounds is to just pick your battles Dont bet just to bet. If theres nothing you feel confident in just play another day.. Sometimes when you lose and this will happen your going to want to chase your losses, take a breather and meticulously pick what you put next..

I cant tell you how many times I lost a heartbreaker and made a really dumb bet right after that in hindsight had no business in touching Use multiple books to shop for best odds, I was surprised at how sometimes odds were wildly different at different books, literally free value lying around. The house always wins. Does that mean you will always lose? Absolutely not.

You could be profitable for months or years but eventually some shit will happen. So look at this as an opportunity to have fun. Enjoy the highs and the adrenaline rush of nailing a solid bet. But overall just look at it as a hobby. I just bet for fun I've only made one deposit and I'm up but it's still amounts I really don't care about.

It's just added entertainment when I'm watching football and mma to me did win a nice chunk on Izzy this weekend though! I used to just play daily fantasy. Those promo codes are great. Mine doubled my deposit. Look into what implied probability is. You want to find where you think the book's wrong and bet that. If a fight's a toss up, you view it as a toss up, the book views it as a toss up, then you'd be dumb to bet anything. No shame in not betting on something.

Don't let your personal fandom have any role in betting if you can. You don't need to stick to a unit system if you're playing with money you don't care about. If you only have a few hundred bucks bankroll and want to bet 50 bucks on something you're confident in, don't let units tell you otherwise.

They're a great gauge for talking about betting, but I'm not sure how many people functionally use that system. Also, live betting's the shit. I find way more lines I'd consider off during live betting. Especially in MMA. I would recommend putting together 7 or 8 leg parlays across multiple sports while you are drunk.

Take your most confident picks Gambling should be entertaining. These bets are boring and are not sexy. The markets are not efficient and if you have a skill for it you can win. I like the post about fading your most confident picks.

I would have won a lot of money had I followed that advice. I'll save you some money. Just send the amount you would bet each week to me. Can't ask for a better deal. In less than 10 days I was down net -5k. Start betting really small in the beginning because you will definitely lose, better to learn without risking a lot. Keep in mind though even some of the smartest people still lose to Vegas.

I had a parlay to win 1k this past weekend and I lost it on a two foot field goal miss by one of the best kickers in the league on one of the best teams in the league. The Rams were my lock and the Bills and Jags were the question marks.

But the wins are a blast lol. Those 4 things should help you not lose as much money. But if you want have a chance to profit long term, you need to learn how to build a model. You will see most of the top voted comments are "redditor for 14 days" or new other new folks.

It's the same people posting on new accounts once their picks start losing. You just gotta have control, you have certain funds aside for bills right? There is a reason Vegas never loses I bet against my team on a 5 leg parlay this weekend. The one that busted it was my team actually winning the game. How bittersweet. Hey there! I can give you three pieces of advice: 1. This is probably the most important: never chase.

They net a negative result and force action elsewhere trying to recoup. Never do it. Bet in moderation. This is why I encourage people to use moderation. If you limit your bets, you allow for a little more variance. Avoid revenge betting second half bets, they are scandalous. I agree, anyone could give you picks. I do this strictly for entertainment, obviously trying to profit, but realizing the house wins long term.

I have a monthly budget. I stick to that. I was ticked when my buddy was sitting next to me hype about the colts winning. Trust your gut. Brissett rushed for the first td You become addicted to the thrill. I am slowly starting to quit. I used to be the guy who couldn't watch a game without any stakes in it. Now I just don't watch football even if I bet on it.

Soon I won't watch and won't bet. If you really, really like a game … come in here and see if everyone also likes it the same way you do. If they do, do not bet that game. Just walk away. I have one small piece of advice that may sound like common sense, but you'd be surprised how many people fall prone to it. Never, ever, EVER place a bet while drunk. Don't place one even after a single drink to be honest. The first thing alcohol takes away is your inhibitions. If you know you'll be drinking, make sure you find a way not to give yourself easy access to your betting app.

I've just gotten into it recently and it is fun as long as you have a ok amount set aside. Betting on games makes you watch the teams you usually wouldn't and have some excitement added to it. Enjoy and good luck! Deposit with bitcoin. Buy bitcoin from a site like Gemini or Coinbase, send to an external wallet, then transfer to your sportsbook. You avoid some of the asinine fees and other difficulties with credit card deposits to an offshore company. This is a post in and of itself but check out the sidebar for more details.

Speaking of depositing money Some of the welcome bonuses are more forgiving in this regard but I try to stay away from anything over 10x rollover. When you get serious you will want to have multiple places to bet so you can always shop around for the best line. Also certain books specialize in different things but you can hone in on that later. From there I was hooked and I actually bought a kindle and got a month free trial where I read as much as I could. Just look up various books on betting and download any of the high rated ones that were free with kindle unlimited Sharper Sports Betting is one.

Follow teams in a league and bet them. Follow their beat reporters, study and analyze how they do in certain matchups. Fun hobby. Don't bet over your head. Bankroll management and not tilt chasing is huge. Bet games you know, bet sports you know, and just pick winners.

That simple. A lot of people get cute with it or fade themselves but all you need to do is pick winners. This sounds like dumb advice but a lot of people lose money on dumb stuff like that trying to game the system when there is no gaming the system, just winners. Going to agree with most people on here and just say don't. It's extremely difficult to be a winning bettor. A very low percentage of people make money doing this. While some of the comments here are hilarious, here is one piece of advice I'd give.

Bankroll management is the single best thing you can do to be a consistent winner. The only way to win as others have said, is to just not bet lol. It's a fun pass time and I've gotten way more interested in sports I never cared about through betting, but you're only gonna lose. It's a dangerous game lol.

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Sports Betting Strategy 3. Our major line move analysis explains how to interpret line moves across the sports betting marketplace in order to find value. Sports Betting Strategy 4. This article explains how sportsbooks shade their lines to exploit human tendencies and how you can take advantage by using our Betting Against the Public strategy. Sports Betting Strategy 5.

Shopping for the best possible number is an easy way to improve your winning percentage over the course of an entire season. Sports Betting Strategy 6. Also, those that have played multiple games without many days off in between each matchup. One system you can use to your advantage is betting on a favorite coming off two to four days of rest.

The team would ideally be coming off a loss and playing against a team on the second half of a back-to-back. This betting system is specific. But if you bet every game that matched this system, since , you would have won at a The key to this system is using both rest and motivation favorite coming off a loss to your advantage. In hockey, the puck line is almost always 1. So in most cases, a favorite will become the underdog on the puck line.

Scoring has been up in the NHL in recent years, which can lead to more variance in games and scores that can end up more lopsided. Look for favorites that have the rest advantage if you want to bet on the puck line. A more obvious angle is to look for high-scoring offenses playing against poor defenses. Do not bet on the puck line simply because the moneyline is too high of a price to pay. You should have a clear handicapping reason to bet on a team to win by two goals in a sport where goals can sometimes be hard to come by.

The key to this bet is to pair up good offensive teams that have bad defenses. As goal scoring has increased over the years, it took a while for books to keep up with the first period over lines. These lines are often juiced up so high that the bet no longer makes sense.

When this happens, there may be value on taking the first period under. Research how teams have been trending before placing a bet on the first period total. Some teams are particularly adept at having their games go over the total in the first period. Teams that also may be disadvantaged by a lack of rest may not feel that fatigue until periods two and three.

In the season, the Chicago Blackhawks and the Tampa Bay Lightning were hitting the first period over with high consistency. The reason for this was mostly due to a bad Blackhawks defense.

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Therefore, you need to compare the odds at different bookmakers. This means that you can pick the best prices for different outcomes. By checking out a number of sites you can get odds that make this bet a sure-fire winner before the race even starts. In the simplest sense, this means covering all possible results.

You also bet on it not winning as well. Of course, the odds have to make sense. If you are going to place a number of bets then getting the maths right is hugely important. In some cases, you might place a main bet and a lay bet to ensure a profit.

After that, there are some fairly complicated strategies that you can use to cover different situations. No matter what happens you win more than you wager. In fact, you could apply the matched betting approach to just about any sport. As long as you can bet on all possible outcomes at the right price then it works. This becomes more obvious if we look at the example of football. It should be even easier to win than it is with horse racing. After all, there are only three possible outcomes.

Either one of the teams wins or it is a draw. The same principles apply as with horse racing. You need to find matches in which you can cover all possible results and still win. You are taking the unpredictability out of the sport by covering all of the bases.

This might seem unlikely at first. If one team is more highly rated than the other then it stands to reason that they will be at much shorter odds. Even with closely matched teams it seems unlikely that the bookies will get the figures wrong. Well, once again smart maths will help you to win in this way. The sports betting market is very competitive and bookies often offer tempting prices.

With the right price for each outcome you can be sure of winning. Everton from earlier. Some bookies might have Chelsea as clear favourites. Yet, what is just one of them has a special deal on the London team winning? With lay bets it becomes even easier than betting on every possible outcome. Instead of betting on Chelsea, Everton or a draw you start off with just one of them.

So, you place your main bet as Chelsea winning. After doing that, the lay bet simply has be on Chelsea not winning. It is clear that one of these bets is going to pay out. The key is in finding the odds that make this a worthwhile bet. The odds on both outcomes have to be in your favour. Opportunities like this are relatively few and far between but they do exist. This same betting strategy can also be used for other sports.

Whether you want to bet on tennis, basketball or any other sport, you can always win from now on. If you are open to betting on different sports then you will have more options to choose from. So far, we have seen that matched betting can be a great way of taking advantage of odds that work in your favour. The best is yet to come, though.

You see, the odds will only be stacked in your favour in a certain number of sporting events. The bookies only let a few opportunities like this slip through. Fortunately, there is another reason why this is the best sports betting strategy. This is the fact that you can use bookmaker bonus offers too. By using free bets and other offers you will find it far easier to win every time that you gamble. For example, if you are given a free bet from one bookie then you could place it on a certain horse winning.

You then place a lay bet on the opposite happening. Because you are using less of your own money it is easier to get the numbers to stack up. So why do bookies still offer deals like this? Surely they should be looking to stop this happening. The majority will place a bet in the traditional way and probably lose the free money.

If these free bets lost them too much money you can be sure that they would do something about it. Secondly, this is a hugely competitive market these days. There are plenty of different bookies around and they all want you to bet with them. Offering incentives helps them to retain more customers.

The number of bookies means that you are spoiled for choice when it comes to offers. As well as free bets for new players, there are also bonuses for regular gamblers as well as other promotions. Online casinos and bingo sites are other places where you can use special offers to make money with no risk. As we have seen, making the right bets comes down to maths rather than any knowledge of the sport.

Does this mean that you need to be a maths genius to win with matched betting? Perhaps you imagine having to spend all day with a calculator or a slide ruler? You can let some software do this for you, instead. Of course, it needs to be the right software if you want to win every time. So what should you be looking for? For a start, you need something that makes life easier for you rather than complicating it.

This means that you want software that it is easy to use from day one. Ideally, you will also see a good range of bets from a wide number of bookies. The more options you can see then the more you can win. You should also expect it to be clearly explained how much you can win depending upon the amount of your bet. This type of sports betting strategy depends upon making the right amount of bet in each case.

If you get this wrong then it could turn into a losing bet rather than a guaranteed winner. Good matched betting software will make it easy for you to find the right bets. It will then guide you smoothly through the whole process. In this way, you can start making money even if you have never gambled before in your life.

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